A Systematic Sample Size Analysis of ML-Based Path Loss Prediction for LPWAN

Fri, 02 Oct 2026 00:00:00 +0200

Low Power Wide Area Networks like LoRa are increasingly deployed for smart city applications, requiring accurate path loss prediction for effective network planning. Traditional (empirical) propagation models often exhibit limited accuracy in these scenarios. We investigate machine learning models for LoRa path loss prediction, systematically analyzing how prediction accuracy scales with training set size using real-world measurements from an urban deployment.

Our approach employs a Random Forest with LiDAR-derived terrain features and k-Nearest Neighbors with coordinate data, comparing their performance against established empirical models and specialized LPWAN models. Under random pooled splits, both ML models consistently outperform the considered baseline models across the evaluated training-set sizes. At maximum training size, they achieve RMSE values below 6.5 dB compared to 9.7 dB for the best baseline, indicating accurate within-deployment interpolation.

Jörn Hees on

A Systematic Sample Size Analysis of ML-Based Path Loss Prediction for LPWAN